原文標題：
Traders place $430 million bet on lower oil price before Trump ceasefire
extension
Gemini機翻：
交易者在川普延長停火協議前，斥資 4.3 億美元押注油價下跌
原文連結：
https://tinyurl.com/3e7y6d86
發布時間：
04/22/2026, 09:19 AM Updated 04/22/2026, 10:13 AM
記者署名：
無
原文內容：
LONDON, April 22 (Reuters) - Traders placed a series of bets worth $430
million on a drop in crude prices just 15 minutes before U.S. President Donald
Trump said he would extend a ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday. It is the
third time this month, and the fourth in total, that large, well-timed
directional bets on the oil price have been made shortly before major
announcements on the Iran war. One combined wager in March was worth $500
million, while April’s bets have together totalled some $2.1 billion. ‧
Between 1954 and 1956 GMT on Tuesday, 4,260 lots of selling hit the oil market
, worth a combined $430 million, based on the prevailing Brent futures price,
according to LSEG data. Trump said he would extend the ceasefire indefinitely
at 2010 GMT. ‧ The Brent market settles at 1830 GMT, meaning these trades
took place in what is known as post-settlement hours, when volumes are usually
extremely limited. ‧ The trades did not have much impact on the price, which
edged down to $100.66 a barrel, from $100.91 before they took place. After
Trump’s announcement, Brent crude futures fell to a low of $96.83 in the
minute that followed. They were last trading at $99.2 a barrel at 1200 GMT on
Wednesday.‧ On March 23, 15 minutes before Trump announced a delay to
threatened attacks on Iranian power infrastructure, anonymous traders placed $
500 million on a drop in the oil price. Similarly, on April 7, bets worth $950
million went through just hours before Trump’s announcement of a two-week
ceasefire.‧ On April 17, some 20 minutes prior to the Iranian foreign
minister posting on social media that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to
commercial shipping, traders placed $760 million in bets on a falling oil
price. ‧ The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating a
series of oil futures trades, including those on March 23 and April 7, that
were placed shortly before major policy shifts by Trump related to the war in
Iran, a person familiar with the matter said on April 15. ‧ A spokesperson
for the Intercontinental Exchange, known as ICE, declined to comment.
倫敦，4 月 22 日（路透社）— 週二，就在美國總統唐納·川普（Donald Trump）宣布
將延長與伊朗的停火協議前 15 分鐘，交易員進行了一系列價值 4.3 億美元的押注，看
好原油價格下跌。
這是本月第三次，也是總計第四次，在關於伊朗戰爭的重大宣布前夕，出現大規模且時機
精準的油價定向押注。3 月份的一項組合賭注價值 5 億美元，而 4 月份的押注總額已達
到約 21 億美元。
根據倫敦證券交易所集團（LSEG）的數據，週二格林威治標準時間（GMT）19:54 至
19:56 之間，原油市場出現了 4,260 手賣盤，以當時的布蘭特（Brent）原油期貨價格計
算，總值達 4.3 億美元。川普隨後在 GMT 20:10 宣布他將無限期延長停火。
布蘭特原油市場於 GMT 18:30 結算，這意味著這些交易發生在所謂的盤後交易時段
，通常此時的交易量極其有限。
這些交易對價格影響不大，油價從交易前的每桶 100.91 美元微跌至 100.66 美元。
在川普宣布消息後，布蘭特原油期貨在隨後的一分鐘內跌至 96.83 美元的低點。週三
GMT 12:00，其交易價格為每桶 99.2 美元。
3 月 23 日，在川普宣布推遲對伊朗電力基礎設施的威脅攻擊前 15 分鐘，匿名交易
員押注 5 億美元看跌油價。同樣地，在 4 月 7 日，就在川普宣布為期兩週的停火消息
發布前幾小時，價值 9.5 億美元的押注成交。
4 月 17 日，在伊朗外交部長在社群媒體上發布霍姆茲海峽（Strait of Hormuz）將
對商業航運開放的消息前約 20 分鐘，交易員投入了 7.6 億美元押注油價下跌。
一位知情人士於 4 月 15 日表示，美國商品期貨交易委員會（U.S. Commodity
Futures Trading Commission, CFTC）正在調查一系列油價期貨交易，包括 3 月 23 日
和 4 月 7 日的交易，這些交易均在川普發布與伊朗戰爭相關的重大政策轉向之前進行。
洲際交易所（Intercontinental Exchange, ICE）的發言人拒絕置評。
心得/評論：
哪來的原油期貨之神，保守估計光這次美國伊朗戰爭獲利一億美元以上吧...
前幾次的精準下注交易可以參考這篇的內容（有圖）
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cge0grppe3po
連續四次都在短時間前精準猜中也太誇張。
--
※ 文章網址: https://webptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1776930786.A.6C9.html
※ 編輯: chordate (45.14.71.15 日本), 04/23/2026 16:01:08
