原文標題： Why U.S. Beef Prices Keep Scaling New Heights 原文連結： https://www.investopedia.com/why-beef-prices-keep-scaling-new-heights-11769774 發布時間： July 12, 2025 08:00 AM EDT 記者署名： Lyle Niedens 原文內容： Why U.S. Beef Prices Keep Scaling New Heights KEY TAKEAWAYS The lowest U.S. cattle inventories in 73 years have pushed U.S. beef prices to all-time highs in recent months. Reduced slaughter is forecast to limit beef production in the months ahead and into 2026. Tariffs and a ban on cattle shipments from Mexico could crimp otherwise strong beef imports that have helped pick up the slack. U.S. beef cattle supplies have reached their lowest point since the Truman Administration, propelling beef prices to all-time highs that likely will persist in the months ahead. Covid-19 pandemic disruptions, drought in the western U.S. and meatpacking industry consolidation all have played a role in declining cattle inventories in recent years. Now, with supplies down, tariffs and Mother Nature may limit beef and cattle imports, maintaining upward pressure on prices. This week, the U.S. reinstituted a ban on cattle imports from Mexico because of concerns about screwworm, a flesh-eating larvae that can spread throughout cattle herds.1 Prices Surge Ground beef prices reached an average of $5.98 per pound in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.2 That's a 16% increase from the same month a year ago and 46% higher than four years ago. A broader measure of retail beef prices, including steaks and roasts, from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows a 17% increase since the beginning of 2023.3 Beef prices that have repeatedly scaled new all-time highs this year directly reflect the declining availability of cattle for slaughter. As of Jan. 1, U.S. cattle inventories were at the lowest level since 1952.4 Inventories have declined steadily since the pandemic.5 As consumer demand has remained steady, the lower supply has pushed up prices at cattle auctions and prices for cattle fattened at feed yards. Feeder cattle and live cattle prices have surged 21% and 14% so far this year, and average prices for slaughter steers have reached record highs.67 Limited Production As cattle prices have risen, meatpackers in May dropped the number of animals they slaughtered for the first time during that month since at least 1970.6 Typically, slaughter increases in spring months as meatpackers prepare for summer grilling season demand. As a result, the USDA in June lowered its 2025 U.S. beef production projection slightly, and production in 2026 now is forecast to fall 4% from this year, likely keeping a high floor on prices. Beef imports have helped pick up some of the supply slack this year, with U.S. beef imports up 28% through April. However, import prices have surged, exacerbated by tariffs the Trump Administration has levied on key foreign markets.6 That could limit import demand moving forward. 機翻： 為何美國牛肉價格持續創下新高 主要觀點 - 美國牛隻存欄量創73年來最低，推高近期美國牛肉價格至歷史新高。 - 預計未來數月至2026年，屠宰量減少將限制牛肉產量。 - 對墨西哥牛隻進口的關稅和禁令可能限制原本強勁的牛肉進口，這些進口有助於彌補供 應缺口。 - 美國肉牛供應量已降至杜魯門（Truman）政府時期以來的最低點，牛肉價格創下歷史新 高，且這種高價可能在未來數月持續。 新冠疫情（Covid-19）造成的干擾、美國西部乾旱以及肉品加工業的整合，近年來皆對牛 隻存欄量下降產生影響。 現在，隨著供應減少，關稅和自然因素可能限制牛肉及牛隻進口，持續推高價格壓力。本 週，美國因擔心螺旋蟲（screwworm，一種會侵蝕牛隻的食肉幼蟲）在牛群中傳播，重新 對墨西哥牛隻進口實施禁令。 價格飆升 根據勞工統計局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）數據，5月絞牛肉價格平均達到每磅5. 98美元。與去年同期相比上漲16%，與四年前相比上漲46%。美國農業部（U.S. Department of Agriculture）對零售牛肉價格（包括牛排和烤肉）的更廣泛衡量顯示， 自2023年初以來價格上漲17%。 今年牛肉價格屢次創下歷史新高，直接反映出可供屠宰的牛隻數量下降。截至1月1日，美 國牛隻存欄量降至1952年以來的最低水平。疫情爆發以來，存欄量持續穩定下降。 由於消費者需求保持穩定，供應減少推高了牛隻拍賣價格以及飼養場育肥牛的價格。今年 至今，育肥牛和活牛價格分別上漲21%和14%，屠宰用公牛的平均價格也創下歷史新高。 產量受限 隨著牛隻價格上漲，肉品加工商在5月首次減少屠宰量，這是至少自1970年以來該月首次 出現屠宰量下降。通常，春季屠宰量會增加，以因應夏季燒烤季的需求。 因此，美國農業部在6月略微下調了2025年美國牛肉產量預測，預計2026年產量將較今年 下降4%，這可能使價格保持高位。 今年牛肉進口在一定程度上彌補了供應缺口，截至4月，美國牛肉進口量增加28%。然而， 進口價格也隨之上漲，川普政府對主要外國市場徵收的關稅加劇了這一情況。這可能限制 未來的進口需求。 心得/評論： 美國自己的牛肉都不太夠用了，同時庫存來到來到73年最低。 台灣假如真的降美國牛關稅暫時也不會對台灣造成太大衝擊吧。 另外美股麥當勞、YUM股價不知道會不會受到牛肉價格影響？ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 220.211.181.230 (日本) ※ 文章網址: https://webptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1752338277.A.A6E.html ※ 編輯: chordate (220.211.181.230 日本), 07/13/2025 00:38:44